Cory predicts...

http://ondrejka.blogspot.com/2009/01/predictions-for-2009.html


Question: are you still around, Cory, and can I have a bear?

edit: TY to Vlad and his blog over at http://www.shiny-life.com/ , for pointing me to the predictions.

Given his hints about Microsoft and acquisitions...

If Microsoft acquires Linden Labs it's doomed. Microsoft *always* forces acquisitions to switch to a Windows based infrastructure. Look at what they put Hotmail through to switch it over... and it was only doing web and email.

Wanna bet?

I think both his predictions are offside, however he does have an inside track on the acquisition angle, I just don't see it happening to a healthy company at a time of economic turmoil.

Dunno how much inside info he's got - he's been gone for over a year now..

I was about to say.. he's been gone for quite a while.

And I might be mistaken, but wasn't it Cory's bet that led to the flood gates being opened on 06/06/06 to get the numbers up?

And I might also be mistaken, but wasn't Cory blamed for the "Love Machine" for LL staff? Or was that all of the Tao of Linden?

If I'm wrong, nevermind

But if those two are right then I think he's either got a lot of faith in the crew that LL now has OR the belief that Google is dying to get it's hands on Second Life after it's little thing failed.

considering how much we 'get away' with (even in a currenty american-driven, community-standard moralistic economy) in a non-corporate environ, i hate to contemplate a market sell-out of any kind (national or world).

i doubt that even the currently 'liberal' content/service climate (debatable, i know;0) would survive a larger stock-holder. that would just risk a non-democratic 'call-taker' making the shots.

israel, gaza?? any of that stuff?? well they weren't able to play nicely even before sl, so why pin any underlying accomplishments (or disolutions) to that situation? mr. bushie wasn't game to continue any of the previous administration's (i.e., clinton's) plan. if the entire situation over there relies upon on our intervention here, then it is mr. bushie who dropped the ball, even before 9/11. (i know it's hard for people to remember, but mr. bush went out on a worldwide 'hate us' tour long before 9/11... thumbing his nose at kyoto and many other world-wide u.n.-ish mandates, then also subsequently ignored reports documenting 'bin laden determined to strike within the u.s.'...)

it's foolish to think that snubbing our noses at the middle-east would amount to any less. clinton managed to keep them playing nicely for a long time.

If Microsoft buys Linden lab then the following will take place:
1. The core technical staff that keeps the thing running will be retained assuming they are willing to move to Redmond and into the Red West campus. One of them will probably get my old office. (Yes Microsoft had a vision based on Snow Crash back in 1996. I worked on The Plaza on MSN, graphics couldn't cut it back then, turned it into a link mall, and now it is shopping.msn.com and still kicking. And MSN is who would pick it up and UGC would instantly be history as it would be nothing but the original shopping mall originally envisioned)
2. A few of the other LL staff would be pulled along and released fairly quickly as soon as it is determined exactly who is needed to keep people happy and the grid running for a while.
3. The system would be examined and a decision made as to what product line it would be merged into.
4. The remaining Linden lab people would be interviewed with the weird IQ tests they give and a very select few extremely good programmers would be absorbed into Microsoft. The rest would be released.
5. The entire system would be converted to the Microsoft platform. Or retired to the bone yard.
6. shopping.msn.com would debut it's 3D shopping experience 14 years after it was originally planned.
7. In 2 years the entire concept scrapped because it was not making 20 percent profit in 2 years which is a mandatory project requirement at Microsoft.

I think a relevant parallel question would be:

Is there any company out there that thinks "acquiring Linden Research" is the hot strategic move of 2009?

Perhaps a lumpy mattress stuffed with the equivalent amount of cash as the would-be purchase would be a higher return investment over the next 5 years. And a lot less of a headache.

Acquiring Second Life might actually make economic sense for the right acquirer, but it's hard to think of who that could be.

First of all, SL actually has revenue, quite a lot of it in fact, and SL's paying users keep coming back for more, even after sharp fee increases. By contrast, most Web 2.0 companies (think of Twitter for instance) have lots of users but no way to monetize them.

Second, SL's competitive position is much stronger now than it was just a few short months ago. SL users might grit their teeth and vow to jump ship as soon as a credible competitor emerges, but thanks to the credit crunch and global financial crisis, that won't happen for the foreseeable future.

Small startups can't get financing anymore, and venture capital is dying off as an asset class (no IPO exit strategy, investors defaulting on capital calls). Large company competition isn't faring much better: Google Lively is already dead, and Sony Home has a very limited potential userbase because it only runs on PS3 consoles. Worse, PS3s sold very poorly this holiday season, because they are a lot more expensive than Xbox and consumers have become extremely cost conscious in this recession. Sony is a company in disarray, in need of restructuring and cutting product lines, and its CEO seems to be at odds with his underlings as to how to proceed. Without a sharp price cut (which Sony can't afford because they lose money on every console they sell), the PS3 could enter a death spiral within months.

In short, Second Life is now the only game in town, with a strong "moat". The problem is, the town might be a very small town, and SL would be a distraction (or a neglected stepchild) rather than a good strategic fit for most of the relatively few companies out there with money to spend on acquisitions. And SL's non-mainstream userbase might be radioactive for many acquirers.

Probably SL will just carry on as an independent company. It is likely to benefit from the need for escapism during dire economic times. Almost as an afterthought, it also has something that has eluded the 2D web altogether: a functioning micropayments system.

...bingo!

The big G was at one point in time during late 2007 looking towards linden labs to either become a partner in the company or buy out the company as-is.

Hence the deal that was brokered where linden labs got their hands on google technology for the search system. The last time i was in the google offices was just after the announcement of the closure of livley...after that happened the old talk of "the Linden Labs question" has started again.

They wont buyout the Lab...but if they do go for it Google will invest heavilly in linden lab, basically making linden labs a subsidiary of Google INC.

For those who saw the Dazzle viewer, notice it never got forced through to us all, despite being "intuitive" for those using the then latest version of Microsoft Office ...

I read the article - I was going to post a link but someone else got there first.

I think the economic downturn will see a growth in membership and use of SL, as more people will have more spare time on their hands. But I'm not sure if that will do much to grow the SL economy as people will be more cautious about how much they spend on SL.

I still have not seen any serious competition to SL, the best rivals seem to be the SL clones based on OpenSim. I've seen publicity videos on YouTube of various new worlds said to be in development but all seems to have gone quiet.