Long may SL live...
|
|
Lee Ponzu
What Would Steve Do?
Join date: 28 Jun 2006
Posts: 1,770
|
07-30-2009 08:33
There is the abstract bayesian probability argument called Gott's Doomsday Argument (Google away  that can be used to make predictions about Second Life. Assuming that SL as we know it today started in about 2006, it says there is a 1 in 4 chance that SL will die in about one year. There is also a 1 in 4 chance that it will last about 10 or 11 years. That also means it is about 50-50 that it will last between about 1 and 11 years from today. Discuss... PS The formula says that there is a 50% chance of survival between 1/3 and 3 times the current age. I took the current age to be about 3 1/2. I don't consider the early days to be SL as we know it today. If you start in 2003, then SL is now about 6 years old, so the limits change to 2 years to 18 years. I find it hard to imagine SL *as we know it* still going strong 18 years from now.
_____________________
So many monkeys, so little Shakespeare.
|
|
Destiny Niles
Registered User
Join date: 23 Aug 2006
Posts: 949
|
07-30-2009 08:41
Always can invent itself. I've technically had the same job for almost 30 years. But in reality my job changes about every 3 years.
|
|
Darien Caldwell
Registered User
Join date: 12 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,127
|
07-30-2009 09:07
From: Lee Ponzu I find it hard to imagine SL *as we know it* still going strong 18 years from now. Agreed. In fact SL as I know it from 2006 is already gone. SL is always changing. |
|
sable Valentine
AU United
Join date: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 1,275
|
07-30-2009 09:10
From: Darien Caldwell Agreed. In fact SL as I know it from 2006 is already gone. SL is always changing. That! |
|
Argent Stonecutter
Emergency Mustelid
Join date: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 20,263
|
07-30-2009 09:12
From: Lee Ponzu Assuming that SL as we know it today started in about 2006 OMG, I was in an imaginary SL in 2005?  No, SL in 2005 wasn't significantly different from SL today in any way that matters, just smaller. I suspect that's true for 2004 or 2003 as well. Also, what's the confidence level of these predictions? |
|
Marianne McCann
Feted Inner Child
Join date: 23 Feb 2006
Posts: 7,145
|
07-30-2009 09:29
From: Darien Caldwell In fact SL as I know it from 2006 is already gone. SL is always changing. From: Argent Stonecutter No, SL in 2005 wasn't significantly different from SL today in any way that matters, just smaller. I suspect that's true for 2004 or 2003 as well. I'd say both statements are true. The SL of 2005 - let alone 2003 - is a very different place. Technologies have improved the world as a whole (Havok 4, Windlight, Sculpts, even Flexi and Local Lighting), while the artistry and imagination have made Second Life more and more fascinating. Yet the underpinnings of the world are still the same as always. Sure they've been streamlined over time, but you still rez cubes, you still type while you talk, you still do the same things with avatars that one always has. IMO, this is one of the things that makes SL hard to predict with the standard models.
_____________________
  "There's nothing objectionable nor illegal in having a child-like avatar in itself and we must assume innocence until proof of the contrary." - Lewis PR Linden "If you find children offensive, you're gonna have trouble in this world  " - Prospero Linden
|
|
Argent Stonecutter
Emergency Mustelid
Join date: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 20,263
|
07-30-2009 09:42
From: Marianne McCann
Yet the underpinnings of the world are still the same as always. Sure they've been streamlined over time, but you still rez cubes, you still type while you talk, you still do the same things with avatars that one always has.
Yep, you still jump when you start typing and forget to hit return first! |
|
Dekka Raymaker
thinking very hard
Join date: 4 Feb 2007
Posts: 3,898
|
07-30-2009 09:47
OMG 18 years, I'll be 68 before I leave the house again!
Edit: 69 memories going already or dead of course.
|
|
Carl Metropolitan
Registered User
Join date: 7 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,031
|
07-30-2009 13:29
GIGO
|
|
Raudf Fox
(ra-ow-th)
Join date: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 5,119
|
07-30-2009 13:48
I think that the years SL will survive is directly proportional to the number of "ZOMG, sky iz fallingz!!11111!!!" posts started in this forum.
_____________________
DiamonX Studios, the place of the Victorian Times series of gowns and dresses - Located at http://slurl.com/secondlife/Fushida/224/176
Want more attachment points for your avatar's wearing pleasure? Then please vote for
https://jira.secondlife.com/browse/VWR-1065?
|
|
Kokoro Fasching
Pixie Dust and Sugar
Join date: 23 Dec 2005
Posts: 949
|
07-30-2009 15:53
SL will be here in some form or another until the Great Pasta itself comes and pulls it home in It's great noodley appendages.
Or until Microsoft buys it and renames it Windows 9.7.
|
|
Raudf Fox
(ra-ow-th)
Join date: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 5,119
|
07-30-2009 16:29
From: Kokoro Fasching SL will be here in some form or another until the Great Pasta itself comes and pulls it home in It's great noodley appendages.
Or until Microsoft buys it and renames it Windows 9.7. Upon which, it will get worse bugs, namely become very easy to hack.
_____________________
DiamonX Studios, the place of the Victorian Times series of gowns and dresses - Located at http://slurl.com/secondlife/Fushida/224/176
Want more attachment points for your avatar's wearing pleasure? Then please vote for
https://jira.secondlife.com/browse/VWR-1065?
|
|
Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
|
07-30-2009 18:23
From: Marianne McCann I'd say both statements are true. The SL of 2005 - let alone 2003 - is a very different place. Technologies have improved the world as a whole (Havok 4, Windlight, Sculpts, even Flexi and Local Lighting), while the artistry and imagination have made Second Life more and more fascinating.
Yet the underpinnings of the world are still the same as always. Sure they've been streamlined over time, but you still rez cubes, you still type while you talk, you still do the same things with avatars that one always has.
IMO, this is one of the things that makes SL hard to predict with the standard models. but SL was cooler then |
|
Jig Chippewa
Fine Young Cannibal
Join date: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 5,150
|
07-30-2009 18:54
I'll still want public sex with satyrs!
Oooo sorry, wrong thread.
_____________________
Fine Young Cannibal
|