The 1.2 Skyline

RELEVANT FACTORS

There are at least three major changes I see coming with 1.2 which will drastically influence architecture in SL.

1. Establishment of a land-less tourist class, a landed middle class, and a land-rich lifer class.
2. Abolishment of height, luminosity, and volume taxes.
3. Balance of prim allotment and land-ownership.

EFFECTS ON ARCHITECTURE IN GENERAL

All of these factors, I think, will have lasting widespread effects on the SL landscape. Homes will expand due to lifted restrictions on volume. Pre-point-two, there is a huge difference in the $L used to upkeep a 10m3 cube versus a a 1m3 cube, but post-point-two, there will be no $L upkeep. With more room to expand vertically, and less to expand horizontally, we'll see this increase in volume expressed in tall, rectangular buildings with bases about the size of thier plots.

EFFECTS BY CLASS

Generally, I expect the following changes according to newly emerging social classes formed through uneven access to land and prims:

The middle class will feel crowded for space, but will adapt. Some will use pre-fab homes or construct simple homes and might find ways to make money off their unused prims. Others will want to express themselves within their limited space. That means attention-grabbing, sky-scraping, lumnious, diverse builds with unique uploaded textures. We'll see conflict and formation of groups to form neighborhoods that segregate by type of build. The construction market for the middle class will be in small, subtle homes for the financially established, and in small prefab homes that fit with the emerging trends.

The lifer class (also including those who pay $L for large quantitites of land even if they aren't lifetime members) will form an identity socially distinct from members who auction into land with $RL. Many of the lifers will become entrepeneurs in one field or another. Lifers will be even less affected by scarcity than pre-point-two, so they will be the main consumer of contract building. The construction market for the lifer class will be essentially unchanged save for an increase in demand sparked by the abolishment of taxes on alloted land.

The tourist class will develop social ties in-world, and be to some extent happy to just browse. However, they will be surrounded by a world of relative wealth and they'll find ways to make money - by scripting for example - but most will not purchase accounts that allot them land. They will look for apartments, cohabit, or form other temporary living arrangements with residents who already have access to prims. Provided the one-time $10 account is sufficiently advertised and brings in enough interest, the construction market for the tourist class will be unique and massive, although it is currently unmet.

SUCCESSFUL TOURIST DWELLINGS

It's true that most will be happy with wandering in now and then to say hello or play with the newest inventions, but many will find ways to make $L and will want to have some sort of home in SL. Because that demand can be met at a profit, it will be met. Here's what I expect to see in tourist housing:

a. Dwellings will be roomy but not expansive enough to take very many prims.
b. Dwellings will be stacked to escape restrictions on base area and take advantage of height. This means they will be very much like towers of hotel rooms.
c. Prims will not be wasted on ramps or stairs, so towers will have an entrance on each floor and this may create demand for layers of roads.
d. Dwellings will come with simple furnishings because tourists cannot leave rezed what few prims they have. I call these "no-rez" dwellings.
e. Successful dwellings will allow a maximum of customization and functionality without using prims. This means "allowdrop" furnishings, where the textures and sounds of the dwelling can be set by dropping textures and sounds on walls, couches, etc. Apartments with options like locking doors, shaded windows, kickers, and useful scripts will be most successful.
f. Because of limited wall space, for dwellings with windows, a high premium will be placed on the view.
g. Dimensions will be generally in 10s of meters, because of the demand for maximum use of volume per prim.

I approximate the following benchmarks for each successful tourist class dwelling: one room, perhaps 600ft2, 10ft ceiling, about 30-50 prims/dwelling, minimal seating, one door, one window.

CLOSING

A lot of these predictions are admittedly a shot in the dark; I'm neither an architect nor an economist. And wherever I could have erred on the side of a conservative estimate, I made a liberal prediction. I do not intend to serve as an authority here - in fact, I fully expect to be proven wrong on many points. I merely wish to put out some ideas and get others guessing too. I ask that anyone who evaluates or advances predictions here be specific about what they expect to happen after 1.2, so that this thread becomes a useful source of information.

Thanks for reading.
Happy building. =^_^=

Hiya kohne
It's amazing how you can have such a clear view of the future without actually playing the game
I disagree with you on several points. The most blatant being that people will now be confined to a certain amount of space. A rather CASTRATING amount of space. Which means that the volume of their house will not increase just because of volume taxes going away. You're forgetting that most people never cared or knew about taxes. And I'll bet that most people will be very surprised when the new changes hit
Nevertheless, thank you for the interesting read.

LOL
1. I play enough to get a grasp of what the changes are, smartypants. Some of us have to walk half an hour to get to a computer when classes permit and don't have hot and cold running SL like they want.

2. Although it is detailed, I never said my view was clear! ^_-

3. If you paid closer attention to my wording, you would see I took that into account. However, people will be confined to a certain amount of AREA, not to VOLUME. That is, land restricts your expansion along the X- and Y-axes, but not along the Z-axis. With the abolishment of height taxes, the Z-axis is fully accessable. It is very possible to take advantage of the new-found slack in the Z-axis by building taller, narrower buildings.

4. I assure you that among those less well-off, people DO care about taxes and are acutely aware of the penalties of building at high altitude and using high-volume prims. And even if most people never cared or knew about taxes, that doesn't mean that post-point-two they won't be vulnerable to restrictions. In fact, as you say, they will be surprised - rudely, I think. People will have to build frugally due to their new limits. It's just that now the chief restriction is on number of prims, not on height or volume. Note that I predict these restrictions on tourist and middle classes, not on the financially independant lifers, whose lifestyle will remain essentially the same.

4. You're welcome for the interesting read.

As an architect, volume was never an issue, really. It was usually just "ok, fill my plot, maximize space". That's usually done within 2 or maybe 3 floors if you're feeling frisky.

heights on builds WILL increase, which will, in my opinion, open up a lot of new architectural options... skywalks between neighbors, upper-level highways, observation towers (the beautiful one in Minna is a great example), whole sky cities, and so on.

Yeah, sure, you're going to get the occasional 10x10x1000 cube room of doom, but you've got that already, although now it's 100x100x10.

Apartment buildings will make a killing now. Mark my words. Write it down.

Your predictions are sound, minus the focus on volume. Volume just isn't happening.

LF

LF, how will apartments make a killing? There arent enough prims on the average plot for a decent house, let alone a whole apartment building filled with furniture. IMHO this is more the death of apartments than anything else.

i think that LL will replace the campground with the projects.. errr.. i mean government sponsored housing for the masses.

Thoughts...

Since I have my draw set to 192 meters, I can now build ANOTHER build at 200 meters altitude. And, if I have enough prims left over, I can stack another build above that. I'll never see the build above me, so I won't have that claustrophobic feeling of something hanging over my head

In fact, I'm thinking of leasing a third of my prims and the 200 meter altitude to some enterprising Basic user. If they make a few bucks, then we'll both be happy. As long as they don't drop things from the balcony.

Also, I see a new market for people who script banishers - those little boxes that throw people off your land. Now, since there will be a whole range of builds above the 40 meter range of the built-in ban list, there should be a good market for limited-range banishers for use above 40 meters on property that isn't necessarily your own land.

It all depends on how temporary prims are handled, I suppose. I haven't really grasped the concept of it, but it sounds like people could rez in "stuff" and have it disappear after a few hours. That would work fine for apartments... rez some plants, maybe a songbox, hang out... when you log off, your temp stuff is returned to your inventory.

Aiko Wu's apartments seem to be very prim-conscious, minus the internal furniture.

LF

BTW, thanks to Kathy for the idea of a tourist class. I hadn't thought of that until she brought it up. As for the confusion about apartments, Eggy, I'll grant that I'm thinking something a bit different from the norm of apartments. The ones in Rose, for example, were very nice, but compared to what I'm talking about, prim-intensive. Here's the template I'm working with*:

A hollow, cut, 10x10x7m cube at each corner. (4p)
A 10x7x0.2m wall to extend the room. (1p)
A 10x7x0.2m wall hollowed out to make a door. (1p)
[The floor is brought up to the bottom of the hollow area and rooms are stacked, so it looks like a doorway.]
A 30x20x0.2m floor. (6p)
A lockable door. (1p)
Two "drop-show" hanging pictures with frames. (#1,2)(4p)
Simple couch. (6p)
Table. (2p)
Drop-show wallpaper (0p)
Drop-play stereo (#3)(1p)
Touch-for-ads window (1p)

____ ____ ____  ____ ____ ____  ____ ____ ____
|            |  |    [__]    |  |    [  ]    |
|    WALLS   |  |            |  |    [  ]    |
   TOP VIEW     """"      """"  """" """" """"
| 30m by 20m |       WALLS          WALLS
|            |    WINDOW SIDE     DOOR SIDE
"""" """" """"     30m by 7m      30m by 7m
____ ____ ____  ____ ____ ____   
|  | |  | |  |  |            |   27-OP APT
|_  FLOOR  __|  |1   TAB   CO|   
   TOP VIEW          LE*   UC    FURNITURE
|"30m by 20m"|  |2   **3   H*|   TOP VIEW
|  | |  | |  |  |            |   30m by 20m
"""" """" """"  """" """" """"

Total = 27p minimum

Although VERY roomy, we're not talking posh living conditions at all. This is 27-prim opulence! In fact, I propose "opulence" as a sarcastic measure of living standard to be advertised along with an apartment. i.e. A "27 opulence" apartment is rather primy, while a "50 opulence" apartment is very detailed. ^_-

Now at 27 opulence, those of us who are fond of furniture that looks realistic are going to be REALLY disapointed. Those who don't mind the "I can see the prims" look will be pleased, however. Money will not be made in providing prim-intensive furnishings, but instead, in making low-opulence housing customizable without using prims. For example, changeable wallpaper, music, advert screens, scripts, and pretty textures.

I believe there's a lot of money to be made by making these apartments high-volume and low-prim, stacking them as high as possible, throwing in a park for a community feel, and then charging very low rates. If I can build a customizable, comfortable, apartment for what it used to take for me to rez my couch and then rent it for under $L100 a month, I think you'll see the numbers crunch VERY nicely.

Anyone want in on this venture with me?

* I retain copyright on this plan. I'm willing to tell everyone where my madness is taking me, but I'm not giving everything away!

bump!

I'm getting a LOT of reads, but not many responses. That either means people are taking what they need and not offering feedback, or this thread isn't worth reading. So after this bump, I'll trust people to respond if they want this topic to note die.