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Headline: L$ crashes

Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nations
Join date: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 941
11-05-2004 02:25
As of 10:21am GMT there are just 9 'wanted' orders totaling 29 blocks on GOM.
The highest block price being $2.50

RUN FOR THE HILLS...
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nation
Rizal Sports Mentor

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Philip Linden: "we are not in the game business."
Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitue my own."
Cubey Terra
Aircraft Builder
Join date: 6 Sep 2003
Posts: 1,725
11-05-2004 02:37
From: Surina Skallagrimson
As of 10:21am GMT there are just 9 'wanted' orders totaling 29 blocks on GOM.
The highest block price being $2.50

RUN FOR THE HILLS...



I see many more than that now, but it's safe to say that it's an excellent time to buy Lindens to fund that project you've always wanted. :)
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Hiro Pendragon
bye bye f0rums!
Join date: 22 Jan 2004
Posts: 5,905
11-05-2004 02:42
Before you panic, it's probably not a crash, it's someone doing price manipulation by unloading some L$ cheap.
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Hiro Pendragon
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Visit my SL blog: http://secondtense.blogspot.com
Chage McCoy
Aerodrome Janitor
Join date: 23 Apr 2004
Posts: 336
11-05-2004 02:47
Well, I'm halting all content production until further notice. whilst I dont try to make an income out of SL, I do like the ability to make it fund itself.

When I see the value wiped of the stuff I slaved over to make, and am proud to sell as high quality works, it just doesnt become fun any more. Given the choice of upping my prices, or not building, I am taking the latter option.

The 3 aircraft I was working on are just going to have to gather dust for now.
Hiro Pendragon
bye bye f0rums!
Join date: 22 Jan 2004
Posts: 5,905
11-05-2004 02:54
From: Chage McCoy
Well, I'm halting all content production until further notice. whilst I dont try to make an income out of SL, I do like the ability to make it fund itself.

When I see the value wiped of the stuff I slaved over to make, and am proud to sell as high quality works, it just doesnt become fun any more. Given the choice of upping my prices, or not building, I am taking the latter option.

The 3 aircraft I was working on are just going to have to gather dust for now.

Instead, consider:
1. Raise your prices. If it doesn't sell it's no different than your current plan. If it does, you make up the difference.
2. Keep making content. Without content, their will be even less demand for L$. As long as there's shiny stuff that noobs will go "oooh, I want!" there will be a demand for L$.
3. Keep producing and then when prices are better you'll have a number of items to release all at once.
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Hiro Pendragon
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http://www.involve3d.com - Involve - Metaverse / Emerging Media Studio

Visit my SL blog: http://secondtense.blogspot.com
Damien Fate
Goofy designer
Join date: 6 Nov 2003
Posts: 634
11-05-2004 02:56
Oh dear.

Well, I would say now IGE is the place to sell if you want to make a little bit more than you would at GOM.

The main question is this though, do you think that it will keep dropping, stabalize, or reverse?
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nations
Join date: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 941
11-05-2004 02:56
There is now a group of blocks that appeared together @ $3.00 I'd say that's one trader, and a very small handfull of orders (9) from $3.01 to $3.25 which I'd guess are 'opportunists' but don't exactly make much difference. So no real change...
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nation
Rizal Sports Mentor

--------------------------------------------------------
Philip Linden: "we are not in the game business."
Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitue my own."
Moopf Murray
Moopfmerising
Join date: 7 Jan 2004
Posts: 2,448
11-05-2004 03:03
I think you're all forgetting something. El Presidente wants to keep the price at just above $4/L$1000 so expect Linden Lab to pretty much directly manipulate the market in the best way they can - stop releasing land for the next couple of months. That will drive up demand as people join or tier up and raise prices, thus increasing demand for Lindens.

Like it or not, the whole market is based on land and the land barons. I hope you all like the land barons, as the market hinges on them to keep the demand for Lindens high. There's a huge glut of land at the moment and prices have dropped considerably, so it only takes Linden Lab to stop releasing land to make demand and prices climb again.

My forecast: no more new land if the value of the L$ continues to drop.

I bet IGE are happy bunnies, sitting on that ever worthless pile of L$ they have. :D

EDIT: Of course there could be one reason why Linden Lab don't stop releasing land - if their bottom line relies upon the auction money. In which case yes, run for the hills, as they'll be stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea, and may not be able to do this.
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Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
11-05-2004 05:34
From: Hiro Pendragon
Before you panic, it's probably not a crash, it's someone doing price manipulation by unloading some L$ cheap.




Panic. I sold out so I can buy back in lower once the bottom is reached. No sense in holding on LDs worth US$4=L$1000 when tomorrow you might be able to double down on a price of US$2=L$1000
Ardith Mifflin
Mecha Fiend
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,416
11-05-2004 05:37
Let's all assume that market is going to continue to get worse, and sell now. That certainly won't continue to drive the market down. Why, it worked for all of those investors during the Great Depression, didn't it.
Donovan Galatea
Cowboy Metaphysicist
Join date: 25 Mar 2004
Posts: 205
11-05-2004 05:40
Chicken

Head

Cut

Off

Run

:rolleyes:



Game
Economy
Simplistic
Little value
yet
_____________________
Always drink upstream from the herd.
Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
11-05-2004 05:45
From: Ardith Mifflin
Let's all assume that market is going to continue to get worse, and sell now. That certainly won't continue to drive the market down. Why, it worked for all of those investors during the Great Depression, didn't it.





U can't compare it to the great depression. The problem with the GD was that banks who invested your money in the market lost it. So you couldn't buy lower because you didn't have any money. Not to mention the company you worked for had its money lost too. So you now lost your job and source of income. Not the scenerio in SL..

When the LD bottoms out and flatlines for several days/weeks. Then it'll be time to load back up. But for now, the bottom could be endless... US$1=L$1000
Aaron Levy
Medicated Lately?
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 2,147
11-05-2004 05:50
It would not have bottomed so quickly if it wasn't for the block size change... it messed with people psychologically. People would rather buy 250 for $1.00 than 1,000 for $4.00, even though it's the same.
Donovan Galatea
Cowboy Metaphysicist
Join date: 25 Mar 2004
Posts: 205
11-05-2004 06:00
From: Alby Yellowknife
U can't compare it to the great depression. The problem with the GD was that banks who invested your money in the market lost it. So you couldn't buy lower because you didn't have any money. Not to mention the company you worked for had its money lost too. So you now lost your job and source of income. Not the scenerio in SL..

When the LD bottoms out and flatlines for several days/weeks. Then it'll be time to load back up. But for now, the bottom could be endless... US$1=L$1000


No. The problem in the Great Depression was World War One destroying the industrial infrastructure of Europe, which couldn't then float the financial networks. Production is always more important than finance.

The lindens's dive is not bottomless, because there are still commodities on the market -- resources like land, and object products -- that have value. It may go low, but ultimately it can be a correction.

It's been pointed out before on the forums that the current situation is the puncturing of a "bubble", not a full-blown depression. The bubble was created by RL publicity and meeting the demands of a large influx of new users over the summer. Interest in Second Life has cooled, and now there is too much land and too many commodities in relation to demand. Hence the correction.

The only way a bubble collapse can mature into a depression is if "bear psychology" ramps up the correction into a crisis, and people dump lindens, stop making commodities, and give up on the land market. Which is exactly what these threads -- and the harbingers of doom -- are encouraging. You're making your own future here.
_____________________
Always drink upstream from the herd.
Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
11-05-2004 06:57
From: Aaron Levy
It would not have bottomed so quickly if it wasn't for the block size change... it messed with people psychologically. People would rather buy 250 for $1.00 than 1,000 for $4.00, even though it's the same.




Chalk that up to stupid people who can't add and subtract.

US$1=L$250 equals US$4=L$1000
Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
11-05-2004 07:05
This is the 1929 Crash of SL......
Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
11-05-2004 13:08
From: Aaron Levy
It would not have bottomed so quickly if it wasn't for the block size change... it messed with people psychologically. People would rather buy 250 for $1.00 than 1,000 for $4.00, even though it's the same.


You are on the money. That is why on the real stock market that reverse splits are almost always a disaster for companies.
Huns Valen
Don't PM me here.
Join date: 3 May 2003
Posts: 2,749
11-05-2004 14:07
From: Donovan Galatea
Chicken

Head

Cut

Off

Run

:rolleyes:



Game
Economy
Simplistic
Little value
yet

CODE
                 r-p-o-p-h-e-s-s-a-g-r
who
a)s w(e loo)k
upnowgath
PPEGORHRASS
eringint(o-
aThe):l
eA
!p:
S
a
(r
rIvInG .gRrEaPsPhOs)
to
rea(be)rran(com)gi(e)ngly
,grasshopper;

- E. E. Cummings
Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
11-05-2004 14:18
From: Surina Skallagrimson
As of 10:21am GMT there are just 9 'wanted' orders totaling 29 blocks on GOM.
The highest block price being $2.50

RUN FOR THE HILLS...


Wow thanks, we have not been spammed with enough of this bullshit.
_____________________
Cristiano


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Donovan Galatea
Cowboy Metaphysicist
Join date: 25 Mar 2004
Posts: 205
11-05-2004 15:02
From: Huns Valen
CODE
                 r-p-o-p-h-e-s-s-a-g-r
who
a)s w(e loo)k
upnowgath
PPEGORHRASS
eringint(o-
aThe):l
eA
!p:
S
a
(r
rIvInG .gRrEaPsPhOs)
to
rea(be)rran(com)gi(e)ngly
,grasshopper;

- E. E. Cummings



Grasshopper, who, as we look, now upgathering into himself, leaps, arriving to become, rearrangingly, a grasshopper.

Which is the definition of any number of alts in SL. ;)

Thank you, Huns.
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Always drink upstream from the herd.