The Day AFter Tomorrow.

Has anyone else seen it. I did this weekend and the technical aspect of the movie was incredible considering.

I mentioned in another post here about gas prices and its effects on the OZONE.

But for those that havent seen the movie I will say this. Go See it if for anything the scientific aspect of what it portreys.

I am still digging out the article tonight on this but it was either the Smithsonian or Popular Science that covered this premise happening and that was way before this movie.

Shadow

What a great movie that was! The technical aspect was amazing, but everything was scientifically monitored, too. If we keep burning fossil fuel (which I hope we won't, now that there are hybrids, and soon fuel cells) then it's definetly possible that something like this will happen in the next 100 years. I'd like to see anyone that says Global Warming is a theory, eh?

I can't wait until the day when marijuana is a bigger pollutant than cars, because cars are so efficiant. (Remember, in the future, no one smokes ciggarrettes, and marijuana's been legalized for medicinal purposes). Just kidding...

I'm more concerned about cow farts...
http://www.poe-news.com/stories.php?poeurlid=23582

You know Darwin the thing that sticks out in my mind from the movie was the Plaque on the Mammoth at the Museum in New York.

"This Mamoth was found in an ice berg in ((blah blah blah) with food in its mouth and stomach still undigested as though the animal had Frozen Instantly!"

Still pondering the implications of what we are doing to our environment.

Becomming a Marine Biologist doesnt cut it we need to have people studying everything from wind currents, sea currents and for that matter magma currents...this is a huge planet and the more we understand the better we can help her continue to thrive with us a board. Or eventually this big round space ship will try to purge the leaches whether they be good or bad.

Shadow

Eggy one responce, Eat more BEEF.

Less beef in the field and more in the freezer means less cow farts....

EAT MORE BEEF...!!

lol

Shadow

Strangely, I saw the movie, too. Let's not advocate the highly typical Hollywood storyline. But some of the science is good. I've been talking with some friends about it, and I think the Discovery channel would have done the movie better just because--let's face it--people see the movie to view the catastrophes and if you're into the intellectual thing the science part of it as well. Discovery channel would be hot all over that stuff without the Hollywood, "My dad spends no time with me and now he's making up for all of his bad deeds by coming to my rescue in times of great danger" thing. I also liked the end portion where Western Civilization is no longer "rule" (won't spoil the film, I'll just leave it at that). I thought it was a good theme for the kind of audience I think would see this film to see.

I haven't seen this movie, nor do I care to.

But what I've read about it seems to indicate that the events of the movie were exaggerated both in terms of scale and in the amount of time it would take for these climate changes to happen. Pretty much across the board, the scientists I've seen interviewed have stated that, while these things could happen, they could not happen within the span of time portrayed in the movie.

I don't mean to poo-poo the negative effects of global warming. I'm just trying to make sure we're not all getting incredibly paranoid about an ice age happening within the course of a week...

I've a new job working for a local newspaper. Among other things, I'm going to be doing movie reviews for them. This is one of several movies I got to see (free even, wow the power of a critic) the other night at my local theater.

Of all the movies I saw that day/night, The Day After was the one I had the least expectations for being worthwhile. It however was definitely the best in terms of how well it exceeded my expectaions.

Oh, if anyone is curious, the other movies I saw were Troy, Shrek 2, Raising Helen and Van Helsing.

Of those, Van Helsing was the closest to The Day After - both being huge budget movies.

They both live up to the most basic requirement of this type of movie - being entertaining. Van Helsing though I had fairly good expectations for and it performed well below those.

Troy was excellently made, but I'm having trouble working up a positive or negative review of it. Raising Helen is similar. It has excellent performances, but it just sort of is what it is.

Shrek 2 is hilarious. I laughed outloud at that movie quite a bit. Of all the movies, it performed closest to my expectations.

Haha, yeah, it had to be exaggerated to make the character plots work, of course. Not to spoil it for anyone, but certain people would have died painfully would it not have taken place over just a few weeks. In reality, something like this would happen over perhaps 20 years (or thats' what my friend said).

Oh and yeah, as to the science, I think it was just vague enough so that you don't have Independence Day size holes in it.

And as to the time frame of the movie. First off, what is the name of the movie? I've found it referenced as The Day After and also as The Day After Tomorrow.

Neither title makes a lick of sense. While it would seem through the power of editing and the fact that it happens in two hours that everything in the movie takes place in a short span of time, the characters often make references to "the other day" or "last week". At times this was a little offputting as the editing and what not try to suggest urgency and give the feel that all of it is happening in a couple of days time. Maybe the editor was confused by the title too?

There definitely isn't a distinguishable two day time period in the movie that the title could be referring to.

Actually Onie in reference to the 72hr time span aka "day after tomorrow" was plainly made a one point in the movie when they wake the Professor and tell him the data from England has been established and the time frame was in hours not weeks.

However, Desalinzation of the North Atlantic current and the northern pacific would take a matter of years to effectively shut down the North Atlantic Flow.With the constant emissions of green house gasses being emitted today would take effect over a decade latter. The resulting Ozone depleteion that currently is taking place has resulted from green house gases emitted 10-15yrs ago.

Basically what does this mean? Well considering the growth of "So Called" third world countrys trying to race to establish them selves like the "Western Civilization" all the gasses emitted from booming countrys such as NEW Russia, China, Korea, and several South American and South African Countrys effects are being felt now.

Marine Biologists a have predicted a -5Celcious shift in temperature in the northern oceans over the next 15 years. Projecting that by 2020-2050 the North atlantic flow that carrys the warm tropical waters north and the cool desalinzed water south intergrating it to the main ocean flow could be destablized in this time as the influx of the melting poles occure.

From studies I have read today which has been something I had read before but wanted a bit of clarification the "Storm" that happend in the movie would progress rapidly once this happend. It may not be in a 72hr time span as the movie suggest but some marine and geothermal biologists relate this could happen in a span of 1-7 months from the time that the Northern flows shut down.

While Waiting for the Flow to stop. What will behappening? Ocean levels over the next 15-40 years will rise at an alarming rate. Venice has already been experiencing a rise of 1-3 inches per year on average based on the tides eb and flow through the city monitoring systems. New York harbor area has noticed a .25(Edited to ad per year) increase in water level over the past 5-6 years.

Data of eratic hurrican seasons lately have been attributed to the higher influx of fresh water being dumped into the ocean due to polar melting. Desalinzation is also leading to small schools of fish abruptly dying and left floating on the surface being carried south on trail of the deep running cooler waters.

The Movie is an over exageration however, its theory and the impact of what it represents a very plauseable one just not on the time scale it portreys. Some may say "Oh this will not happen in my life time" well other factors are attributing to the rapid decline of the ozone and even the industry that I am in is very much aware of the global impact of greenhouse gasses and work with companys that try to stop it or reduce it.

For those of you that actually are intreseted in this here are some of the search factors you can use to look up some of this information.


Deforestation of the Tropical Rain Forest
Fossil Fuels and Green House Gasses
Deforestation for Industry
Desalinzation of the North Atlantic
Extreem Weather Anomalys
Greenhouse Effects what causes it.

All these are what I used to pull up information on this and all coincide as to their basic predictions.

Looking foward to hearing more discussion on this.

Sincerely, Shadow Weaver

I havent seen the movie yet, Shadow, but if the arctic ice melts into the atlantic, sea levels will LOWER.
This is because ice takes up more space as a solid than a liquid, which is why bottles burst in the freezer etc.
Furthermore, removing the northern polar ice cap would greatly boost our economy, since the north pole would become this big lake, and you would be able to send shipments through it a lot faster and cheaper than you can with current shipping routes.
On top of that, a lot of currently frozen land in Canada and Russia, for instance, would become fertile and inhabitable.
The only problem is that I cant really see the north pole melting without the south one melting as well
But I'm not a climatologist

Not to be argumentative, but Shadow, the scene I think you are referring to he looks at the data after being woken up says "How can we have only 16 months?". They respond that the data isn't in months it is in weeks.

There are a lot of references to things like 'the other day' and such with the people holed up in the library.

The time references are all fairly vague.

I was happy though that they didn't go that deep into the science. They would have gotten themselves into trouble really quick.

I was very pleased to not be subjected to another sequence of someone outrunning an explosion.

You are BOTH wrong. He thought the report was saying 6 to 9 months. Then was told weeks. Later it turned out to be days.

hmmm, Dev, that's what I was saying. He thought the data was in months, but it was in weeks. My memory is it was 16, but it may have been 6 to 9.

i went to see it saturday night, it was very spiffy

I saw it Sunday. It was ok but the whole LA tornado scene just didn't make sense. Too many people on the streets watching. I'd imagine that the fools with camcorders might have found a little cover before they started shooting. Even worse, no helicopter pilot in his/her right mind would try to follow a group of tornadoes. On the other hand, when the Capitol Records tower was disintergrating, my only thought was "Take that, RIAA".

Onie, your right about most of the time in the movie being vague to a point, but that was the only scene where I remember correlating the name of the movie with something tangeable in the actual plot was when they described the time line of events.

Now Silly Eggy Tricks are for kids....LOL No seriously your right on that aspect Eggy if the balence of nature could be maintained however that could no longer happen when the ocean desalinized.

So to cover what you were saying Eggy yeah your right about freezing unfortunately the problem is the Ice caps are not all on water as your surmised a lot of the polar Ice caps are near or above sea level. Bouyancy has a lot to do with Ice as well.


I have provided a resource for you to look at Eggy.

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?ID=10340&LnId=1&Lang=eng

The initial formation of Ice expands yes as Water is the only liquid that will expand upon freezing.

Unfortunately as the Ices rapid formation happens and the salt brine is trapped in it the brine creates pockets persey. Thus as the temperature continues to fall in the Ice it begins to contract as the Ice draws more water out of the brine eventually creating Salt crystal pockets as the water is extracted.

Being that Salt water is a different animal than pure water the volume of Ice that forms on an Iceberg actually is denser than the water around it. It does not take up the same volume that the water it once was did because for the most part as it slows its freezing process and more Ice that is added to the bottom of the Berg the less salt it has. The saline or salt is removed from the water before it freezes thus changing its density.

Another factor is the total volume an Iceberg is not level with the water only 1/5th of the berg is exposed above the surface. If the Ice were completely Level with the Sea yes then the sea level would remain the same. However all the volume of Ice above sea level when it melts will cause a rise in the sea level.

Try this experiment at home to see what I am talking about.

Items needed

2-10-12oz clear glasses
2-20oz glasses

4-8oz measurements of water

1-1oz of salt.

2 pieces of serane wrap

Now take the two glases and pour the evenly measured water into each. Mark the water level on each glass.

Make a note and place it by one glass saying salt and add 1 oz of salt slowly till it dissapates into the water.

Make note of the new water level with the addition of the Salt.

Now take both glasses cover with serane wrap and set them level in your freezer for 2hrs.

Take them out and take the serane wrap off and measure the Ice lines.

Two things you will notice. The fresh water Ice is solid and complete. The Saline Ice is not.

Now pour 8oz of water into each 20oz glass. Add the two frozen glasses of Ice to each one and mark your water line.

Let set two hours and come back and measure the waterlines.

In the begining you started out with 32oz of water. In the end you will end up with 32.2 oz of water.

So Eggy in the end yes the oceans will rise based on the melting ice caps for two reasons.

#1 Not all of the Ice is in the water.

#2 with the extraction of brine to create Ice the volume of the ocean density decreases with salt but the ice in the Icebergs does not thus with reintergreation of freshwater backinto the ocean it will swell not receed.

Sorry Eggy basic concepts of science cannot be applied when dealing with multiple factors such as Salinity,pressure and density created by adding a foriegn agent to a pure body.

The dynamics change. The expansion theory is correct and in a perfect sealed environment. It holds true each time however when introducing foriegn bodies to it, it cannot be fully realized without understanding the dynamics of combining different materials.

However, Eggy were this a perfect world and a stable environment be maintained by the melting of the polar Ice caps then yes you are correct it would boost the economy and open new lands to developement and expansion.

However there is only one other problem with this, your current home that you live in now would become unberable to live in as the temperatures roze to above 120F. With the Northern and southern thermal flows stoping there would be no way to dissapate the heat comming from the tropics. ((mind you this is a perfect senerio with no data input due to the lack of polar caps as you surmised.))

Those open lands that became available would be used by people migrating north to escape the superheated temperatures of the tropics. With no thermal conduction in the water there would be no winds. Only the Jet stream and that would dimminish as the temperatures climbed. With no Ice caps there would be no low pressure systems of cold. Thus only spin off storms that would create Violent Thunderstorms due to the evaporation of the oceans at the earths equator.

I need to close this for now but will continue latter for any of those still intrested.

Shadow

Is it just me or is there practially no information about Desalination/Desalinization(?) of the oceans on the inter-web? Where's all this coming from?

Garoud, Check your local Library for issues of the Smithsonian and Research Papers from NC State, FL State and The United Nations Research on the North Atlantic.

Also on the Web look under North Alantic Thrermal Flow

Shadow

A rise in the ocean levels of just a few feet mean that the better part of the Netherlands will be gone - not to mention a lot of low lying cites like Venice, Miami, etc, etc. That can happen within the next dozen years or so and it would be bad enough in my book.

I havent seen it yet, but Jon Stewart made a joke about it tonight and thought you might like to hear it.

He said, "There is something wrong when Shrek 2 is more believeable than The Day After Tomorrow."

I will say this again "YES! the movie is an overt exagration of what can happen." However, Watching the movie made me get in touch with a few of my old college friends that are now Marine Biologists and since watching the movie we have had several discussions via voice on MSN Messenger.

So, Let me Clarify my stance if anyone misinterpreted my previous posts.

The movie is an exageration some of the things they portrey like the 72hr storm is practicaly impossibe due to several mitigating factors.

The "ICE FREEZE" is not realistic except in Micro Bursts. Nothing like that could be sustained for durations of time like the movie portreys. Why because a storm of that size over a land mass cannot be sustained to many restricting factors such as terrain. All this creates friction and would not allow for a EYE of a storm over land.


However, when I refered to Plauseable previously the following do hold true.

#1 Shutting down the norther thermal flows in the north atlantic and the Northern Pacific would decrease the overal northern hemisphere temperature by 10 - 40 degrees annually.

#2 this decrease in temperature would encourage a new Ice age due to winds off the ocean would no longer heat the land but would start to cool it since with no thermal flow bringing warm tropical waters north there would be no regulation of temperature. Thus winds would be fast and cold and would create "ICE STORMS" but not like that in the movie. These Ice storms would be more like a Sand Storm in the desert.

#3 with no Thermal flow all the "Tropic" fish that we currently enjoy for food and survival would move to the equator or die from the cold before making it south.


How long would it take?

Well based on current Green House Gas measurements and the Rate of melting of the Ice Caps the next 20 to 75 years could see a mass erosion of the Ice caps to the point of turning the north atlantic and north Pacific into a huge fresh water lake. This would also effectively shut down the thermal flow.

How long from the time the thermal flow shuts down till the ensuing Ice age?

7 months to 3yrs before it begins, Temperatures would drop slowly at first as the waters would still be warm. Dissapation of heat over such a wide and large body of water is highly speculative.

How long would it last? Again Highly speculative due to the contributing factors of Ozon, radiation reflection due to Ice and Evaporation and redeposit of thermal currents at the equator. Some speculate 50 years some 150 years.

Before I became an Industrial Engineer I was studying to be a Marine Biologist and these sorts of things interesed me at the time.

When my mother was hurt in a factory I changed my major to become an Engineer in hopes that some day what little I could contribute to the Industry I am in would help eleviate some of the saftey problems that a lot of the factories that I deal with are overly burdened with.

I still read and study things about Global Mechanics and I am still very interested in how things are affected due to changes.

The thing The Day after tomorrow did for me was start researching and finding information again on things that I enjoy.

I hope this gives everyone a little better understanding of where I am comming from and that the information I am providing is based on highly speculative research through several foundations and organizations. However, I personally do stand by their findings until proven otherwise.

Sincerely, Shadow Weaver